Stainless steel markets are navigating a nickel-driven cost floor that has reset the pricing baseline 20-25% above 2024 levels. LME nickel at $17,810/mt is supported by Indonesia's NPI supply curtailments at Weda Bay (10-15% of high-grade capacity under maintenance, Tsingshan diverting power to aluminum) and exhausted RKAB mining quotas approaching their 200M wmt ceiling. China produces ~60% of global stainless steel and 304 coil FOB prices at $1,170-$1,190/mt are firm but not accelerating. The EU steel safeguard overhaul on July 1 (quotas halved to ~18M mt, above-quota tariff rising to 50%) will tighten European supply and raise the regional price floor by an estimated 3-5%. The procurement posture is defensive: lock long positions before H2 European price increases, but maintain flexibility given the ~276K mt LME nickel stock overhang that caps bullish moves.
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