Market diagnosis: Silver is retesting the critical $58 support zone for the second time in three weeks, with SI=F settling at $58.92/oz on July 13 — a 5.6% decline from the July 6 close of $62.42. The macro headwinds that triggered the June 26-29 sell-off remain in play: the June FOMC minutes (Jul 8) revealed a sharply split committee with 9 of 18 members projecting at least one more 2026 rate hike, the DXY is at 13-month highs, and rate hike expectations for September may have risen above 55%. The structural story is intact — sixth consecutive annual deficit at -46.3 Moz, COMEX registered stocks at 93.5 Moz (improving from Jun 30 low), Shanghai premium at ~13% — but macro has overwhelmed fundamentals for now. The $58 level held on June 29 with a +6.3% bounce. A second successful test would form a double-bottom and target $65-70. A break below $58 opens the path to $52-55. The risk-reward is shifting toward defensive positioning — the asymmetry requires $58 to hold as support, which is not guaranteed.