Market diagnosis: Silver recovered 6.3% from the Jun 29 low of $58.72, settling at $62.42/oz on July 6 — still 49% below the January ATH of $121.58 but staging its best weekly gain since the March recovery. The macro environment shifted: Fed Chair Warsh signaled inflation expectations are MODERATING, the USD posted its weakest weekly performance since April, and China's ICBM test (Jul 6) injected mild geopolitical uncertainty. The sixth consecutive deficit year (2026F: -46.3 Moz), a persistent Shanghai premium (~13% over Western benchmarks), and COMEX registered stocks at 87 Moz with only 13.6% coverage of open interest provide a structural floor that held at $58.72. The probability-weighted expected year-end price of $79/oz (JPM: $81, LBMA survey: $79.50) implies 27% upside from $62.42. The risk-reward has shifted from defensive to opportunistic — the recovery is backed by both improving macro sentiment and unbroken physical deficits.