INTELLIGENCE REPORT
BUYER: DEFENSIVE

Silver Intelligence Report

June 29, 2026 · Intelligence Report · Silver (COMEX SI=F)

Market diagnosis: Silver broke below $60/oz for the first time since April — SI=F settled at $58.72/oz, down 12% in a single week and 52% below the January ATH of $121.58. The sell-off is macro-driven: the Fed's hawkish stance (80% probability of a December rate hike) and a strengthening dollar are overwhelming silver's still-intact structural deficit. The sixth consecutive deficit year (2026F: -46.3 Moz), persistently low COMEX registered stocks (87.4 Moz), and a ~13% Shanghai premium over Western benchmarks have not prevented the correction because the dominant variable is monetary policy, not physical supply-demand. The risk-reward is shifting toward opportunistic buying at these levels — the probability-weighted expected year-end price of $79/oz (JPM: $81, LBMA survey: $79.50) implies 35% upside from $58.72.

SI=F Spot
$58.72
$/oz · Jun 29 · -0.84%
Weekly Change
-12%
Worst week since Mar 2026
2026 Deficit
-46.3 Moz
Sixth consecutive deficit
Analyst Range
$68–$110
HSBC–Citi · 2026 avg view
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