Market diagnosis: Silver is in structural deficit for the sixth consecutive year (2026F: -46.3 Moz). The spot price has corrected 45% from the January ATH of $121.58/oz to $66.54/oz, with the US-Iran peace agreement signed June 19 draining geopolitical risk premium. The deficit structure remains intact, mine supply is constrained by by-product economics (~70% from base/gold mining), and the Shanghai premium signals persistent Chinese physical demand. The risk-reward is asymmetric to the upside — structural support at $55-60 with catalysts that could drive a recovery to $75-85 by year-end.