Global ferrous scrap markets are in a $400-410/mt Turkish CFR stalemate as of mid-June 2026. Suppliers hold firm at $406-408/mt despite Turkish mills delaying bookings, hoping for lower prices. Bids at $390/mt have been rejected. European mills cutting output in May created oversupply swing tons, yet deep-sea supply remains tight. Three catalysts converge in the next 30 days: the EU safeguard overhaul on July 1 (tighter quotas, 50% out-of-quota tariff), the UK safeguard expiry, and EU scrap export restrictions under consideration. The US domestic market remains flat with #1 Heavy Melting at $364/nt. Structural EAF capacity expansion continues supporting long-term scrap demand. The market carries asymmetric upside risk from policy tightening.
Sign in with a Pro plan to view the full intelligence report.