BUYER POSITION: DEFENSIVE
The rebar market remains range-bound entering late July. SHFE rebar sits at CNY 3,165/mt — flat on the week and flat YTD at 0.0%. The EU steel safeguard (effective July 1) halves duty-free quotas to 18.3 Mt with a 50% out-of-quota tariff, a structural shift that has yet to produce a European price rally. The UK nationalized British Steel on July 16 after its Chinese owner Jingye Group moved to shut blast furnaces. Iron ore eased to $98.70/mt CFR, adding cost relief for struggling mills — only ~37% of Chinese mills operate at a profit. Blast furnace utilization slipped below 90%. Global crude steel output fell 0.3% YoY in May and 1.9% in April, per worldsteel. India remains the lone bright spot at +7.4% demand growth forecast. THE SINGLE BIGGEST RISK: absent Chinese fiscal stimulus, the property-driven demand contraction and iron ore surplus keep rebar trapped below CNY 3,200 with downside risk to CNY 3,000.
SHFE Rebar Futures
3,165
CNY/mt · -0.03% from prev close
52-Week Range
3,000-3,400
CNY/mt · YTD flat 0.0%
YoY Change
-3.25%
YoY vs Jul 2025
Iron Ore TIO=F
$98.70
/mt · Surplus pressure
Mill Profitability
~37%
Profitable · Near breakeven
EU Ex-Works
EUR 701
/mt · Safeguard in effect
US Ex-Works
$1,011
/mt · Section 232 50%
Turkey Rebar FOB
$595
/mt · Stable at $590-600
10 Facts · 14 Estimates
Data status: SHFE rebar at CNY 3,165/mt (Jul 21). YoY -3.25%. YTD 0.0%. Global steel demand +0.3% to 1.72 Bt (worldsteel SRO). China demand -1.5%. Iron ore TIO=F $98.70/mt. Mill profitability ~37%. BF utilization below 90%. EU safeguard: quotas 18.3 Mt (-47%), 50% out-of-quota tariff (Jul 1). US Section 232: 50% (Apr 6). British Steel nationalized (Jul 16). Worldsteel: China Apr 83.6 Mt (-2.8%), May 84.4 Mt (-2.7%); global Apr 153.4 Mt (-1.9%), May 157.9 Mt (-0.3%). H1 exports 57.87 Mt (-5.6% YoY). Sources: SHFE, worldsteel, European Commission, NBS, Trading Economics, SteelHome, SMM, Fastmarkets, IMARC, GMK Center, Signal Ocean, Reuters.
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