Rebar Intelligence Report

The rebar market enters July in a familiar holding pattern. SHFE rebar recovered to ~CNY 3,168/mt from a two-month low of CNY 3,120 in mid-June, but the rebound lacks conviction — China's theoretical rebar margin sits near decade lows, the World Bank cut China's growth outlook through 2027 on July 7, and global crude steel output fell 1.5% year-to-date. The EU steel safeguard took effect July 1, halving duty-free import quotas to 18.3 Mt and doubling above-quota tariffs to 50% — a structural change that reroutes global trade flows but has yet to translate into European price momentum. June NBS manufacturing PMI held at 50.3, barely in expansion territory. THE SINGLE BIGGEST RISK: absent Chinese fiscal stimulus, rebar pricing drifts lower into H2 as the property downturn deepens and iron ore surplus (160 Mt port inventories) provides cost relief to mills. India's +7.8% Jan-May steel output growth is the brightest signal in an otherwise stagnant global picture.