Rebar Intelligence Report

The rebar market enters Q3 at a critical juncture. China's SHFE rebar fell to ~CNY 3,100/mt — the seasonal demand trough — but June 30 PMI data delivered a positive surprise: manufacturing PMI expanded to 50.3 (from 50.0), beating expectations for the first time in months. In Turkey, rebar FOB held steady at $590-600/t through June despite scrap costs falling 3.8% to $392.8/t — EAF mill margins are widening but weak demand from high interest rates and political uncertainty prevents mills from discounting aggressively. THE IMMEDIATE CATALYST: the EU steel safeguard overhaul takes effect TOMORROW (July 1), cutting import quotas and raising the above-quota duty to 50%. EU buyers who haven't secured quota allocation face a 5-8% cost increase on imported rebar starting Wednesday. Global steel demand stagnates at +0.4% in 2026 (OECD), with China's structural decline (-0.6%) offsetting India's +7-8% growth.