BUYER POSITION: DEFENSIVE
Chinese rebar markets entered their seasonal demand trough in mid-June, pushing SHFE futures to ~CNY 3,130/mt — a two-month low. Output discipline (44 EAF mills suspended, NPC meeting curbs) prevented a sharper decline, but construction activity slowed earlier than usual due to persistent rainfall and summer heat. Global bifurcation persists: US rebar at $1,011-1,015/mt behind 50% Section 232 tariffs stands at 2.1x the Chinese FOB price of ~$475/mt. The EU steel safeguard overhaul on July 1 (quotas reduced, above-quota tariff to 50%) adds another layer of regional divergence. With China's property sector still in decline and inventories elevated at >15 Mt at major hubs, the near-term path for domestic rebar is range-bound CNY 2,900-3,300/mt.
SHFE Rebar Futures
3,263
CNY/mt · -0.06%
China FOB Export
~$475
/mt · -2% MoM
US Ex-Works
~$1,015
/mt · +1% MoM
EU Ex-Works
EUR 700
/mt · +3% MoM
China Steel May
83.6M
mt · -2.8% YoY
Combined Inventories
>15M
mt at major hubs
SHFE Warrants
40,125
t · elevated (10x median)
90-Day View
Range-Bound
China weak · US/EU firm
3 Facts · 14 Estimates
Data status: SHFE rebar price sourced from exchange feed as of June 23, 2026 (CNY 3,263/mt). China rebar spot, US and EU rebar prices from IMARC, Trading Economics, and Procurement Resource (Q1-Q2 2026). Research covers supply (World Steel Association, SMM, Mysteel), demand, trade policy (OECD, Fitch), inventories (SHFE/CEIC), regional breakdown, and scenarios. Analyst sources include SMM, ChAI Insight, Fitch Ratings, Worldsteel, Expert Market Research. Data gaps noted in Data Transparency.
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