SHFE rebar (HRB 400) opened June at CNY 3,172/mt, extending a controlled decline from the May average of 3,269. The market is caught between structural oversupply — China's crude steel capacity approaching 1.2 Bt/yr — and the deepest construction contraction since 2020 (NBS construction PMI at 42). Export volumes are absorbing the domestic oversupply at record rates, with Chinese steel exports running 15% above 2025 levels. This report covers price structure, supply-demand balance, trade policy risks, and forward contracting strategy.
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