INTELLIGENCE REPORT

RBOB Gasoline Intelligence Report

August 12, 2026 · Intelligence Report · RBOB Gasoline (NYMEX RB=F)
BUYER: DEFENSIVE

Thesis: RBOB gasoline at $3.1366/gal is consolidating in a $3.00-3.40 band after absorbing a +84.7% YTD war premium. EIA gasoline stocks at 209.7M bbl (-7.7% YoY) and a 3-2-1 crack spread near $64/bbl (vs $20-25 historical) keep the product margin elevated even as crude consolidates. Two catalysts dominate the next 30 days: the September 1 winter-grade switch, which historically removes $0.20-0.30/gal from the front contract, and the live Iran-Oman Hormuz negotiation - Pakistan says the US and Iran are close to "some sort of arrangement," while Iran's security council insists the strait stays closed. Procurement posture: DEFENSIVE - cover Aug-Sep exposure, defer Q4 fixed-price until winter-grade pricing prints, stand ready to lock on a deal-driven dip toward $2.80.

RBOB RB=F
$3.1366
$/gal · August 11, 2026 settle
Daily Change
flat
+0.04% Tue · Aug 12 $3.1364
YTD
+84.7%
since Jan 1, 2026
Crack Spread
$64
$/bbl 3-2-1 · elevated vs ~$22 avg
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In-text verification labels: 36 (FACT: 21 · ESTIMATE: 15) · Data snapshot: August 11, 2026 settlement