INTELLIGENCE REPORT

RBOB Gasoline Intelligence Report

August 5, 2026 · Intelligence Report · RBOB Gasoline (NYMEX RB=F)
BUYER: OPPORTUNISTIC

Thesis: RBOB gasoline at $2.8327/gal has corrected -15.4% from its $3.35 July high as crude normalizes and grade switch expectations are priced in. EIA gasoline stocks at 211.3M bbl (-7.5% YoY) remain tight but are stabilizing. The forward curve shows the structural Sep 1 grade switch: Oct at $2.5744/gal is -$0.2494 below the prompt Sep contract — the largest seasonal discount in two years. With the 3-2-1 crack spread at ~$39.50/bbl (elevated vs $20-25 historical), the gasoline margin is pricing in tight inventory dynamics that are beginning to ease. Procurement posture: OPPORTUNISTIC — secure Q4 contracts at Oct-Nov forward levels; the grade switch creates a buying window that closes by late August.

RBOB RB=F
$2.8327
$/gal · August 5, 2026
Daily Change
-4.52%
-$0.134 vs prev close
YTD
+66.8%
since Jan 1, 2026
Crack Spread
$39.50
$/bbl · elevated vs ~$22 avg
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In-text verification labels: 16 (FACT: 11 · ESTIMATE: 5) · Data snapshot: August 5, 2026