Thesis: RBOB gasoline has pulled back 7.4% in the past month from late-May highs above $3.15/gal as inventories rebuild from 5% below the five-year average and Gulf Coast refineries sustain near-maximum runs at 96.1% utilization. The market has priced out the immediate Hormuz supply premium, but underlying tightness persists — gasoline output of 9.5 mb/d faces structural headwinds from record jet fuel yields that reduced gasoline's share of the barrel to its lowest since 2015. With summer driving demand running at 8.9 mb/d (+3.3% YoY), the market remains undersupplied at current levels. EIA forecasts wholesale prices averaging $2.98/gal in 2026 and $2.61/gal in 2027, implying material downside into next year as Hormuz flows normalize. For gasoline buyers, the risk-reward favors OPPORTUNISTIC procurement — monitor for a break below $2.60 to layer in coverage, but avoid long-dated commitments given the bearish 2027 trajectory.
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