RBOB gasoline at $2.83/gal has corrected 25% from the May 2026 crisis peak of $3.77 as the US-Iran peace deal diminished the immediate Strait of Hormuz risk premium. Gasoline inventories at ~215 million barrels sit 5-6% below the 5-year average following the largest Feb-May drawdown in EIA records going back to 1990. Refinery utilization at 95% leaves no spare capacity to respond to summer demand peaks. Retail pump prices at $4.15/gal remain $1.20 above year-ago levels, weighing on consumer demand elasticity. The procurement call: maintain defensive positioning with layered near-term hedges. The price correction has created potential entry points for H2 2026 coverage, but the fundamental floor remains elevated given depleted inventories and the risk of a delayed Hormuz reopening.
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