Market diagnosis: Platinum is in structural deficit for the fourth consecutive year (2026F: -297 koz). The spot price has corrected 42% from the December 2025 high of $1,900+/oz to $1,651/oz, with macro headwinds (Fed tightening expectations, ceasefire sentiment) suppressing price despite tightening fundamentals. Above-ground stocks have fallen to ~1,747 koz (below 3 months cover) — the lowest in records. The structural deficit is projected at ~689 koz/yr through 2029. The current price sits below all analyst targets except BMO ($1,375), creating asymmetric upside risk. South African supply concentration (70-80%), 20,000+ job losses since 2024, and potential Section 232 PGM tariffs add tail risk to the supply side.