Palladium has recovered 18.1% from the June 24 low of $1,161.30/oz to $1,371.00 (Aug 12), but remains 36.8% below the January peak of $2,169.90. The rally is macro-led: the soft US jobs report (Aug 7) cut September rate-hike odds to 55% from 67%, the dollar fell to a six-week low near 99.56, and gold rallied 8% in a week while palladium reclaimed $1,300-1,377. Fundamentals are in surplus transition - Nornickel projects a narrow 0.3 Moz surplus for 2026, Johnson Matthey sees the first surplus since the 2012-25 deficit streak, and ~80% of demand sits in gasoline autocatalysts as China's BEV output passed petrol vehicles in May 2026. The upside asymmetry is supply-side: Russia concentrates roughly 40% of mined palladium, and a sanctions escalation or Nornickel disruption would spike price regardless of the surplus. The posture is opportunistic - hedge on strength toward $1,450-1,500, and treat any Russia-event dislocation as a supply-risk premium to manage, not chase.
Loading full report…