Market diagnosis: Palladium is in structural surplus of 0.3 Moz (2026F), with demand erosion from EV adoption and platinum substitution driving a -20.7% YTD decline to $1,323.5/oz. The metal collapsed 43% from its January peak of $2,249.90 as supply fears eased and automakers accelerated Pt-for-Pd substitution. However, supply-side risks — Russia accounts for 40% of global mined supply, South Africa 35% — provide a price floor near $1,000-1,100. July palladium contract expiry week — delivery dynamics in focus. The probability-weighted expected year-end price of ~$1,300/oz implies marginal upside from current levels, with the market consolidating in a $1,150-1,500 range. The risk-reward is asymmetric to the downside on fundamentals but supply concentration provides an insurance floor.