Market diagnosis: Palladium is in structural surplus of 0.3 Moz (2026F), with demand erosion from EV adoption and platinum substitution driving a -23.8% YTD decline to $1,271.5/oz. The metal collapsed 43% from its January peak of $2,249.90 as supply fears eased and automakers accelerated Pt-for-Pd substitution. However, supply-side risks — Russia accounts for 40% of global mined supply, South Africa 35% — provide a price floor near $1,000-1,100. The US International Trade Commission issued final determinations on unwrought palladium from Russia (Jun 15), keeping sanctions risk alive. The probability-weighted expected year-end price of ~$1,300/oz implies marginal upside from current levels, with the market consolidating in a $1,150-1,500 range. The risk-reward is asymmetric to the downside on fundamentals but supply concentration provides an insurance floor.