July 1, 2026 · Intelligence Report · Palladium (NYMEX PA=F)
BUYER: OPPORTUNISTIC
Palladium at $1,191/oz, down -28.6% YTD. The market is in structural surplus. Norilsk Nickel projects 0.3 Moz oversupply in 2026 as autocatalyst demand erodes from EV adoption. US anti-dumping duties of 242% effectively block Russian palladium from American buyers. Prices have collapsed 45% from January's $2,169 peak. Procurement strategy: opportunistic — extend coverage, negotiate aggressively, and prepare for potential supply disruption premium from Russia sanctions escalation.