Market diagnosis: Palladium is in a structural surplus with demand erosion driven by the EV transition and platinum substitution in catalytic converters. COMEX PA=F settled at $1,241.50/oz on June 24 — 33% below the January peak of $1,854/oz and 25.6% lower year-to-date. The price has declined in six consecutive months from Q1 2026 average of $1,710/oz to June MTD average of ~$1,347/oz. The fundamental picture is bearish: global gasoline vehicle demand is structurally declining, platinum trades at a 20% discount to palladium, encouraging substitution, and South African supply is recovering from 2025 flood disruptions. The surplus is expected to widen to ~1.25M oz in 2026. Risk-reward favors opportunistic procurement at current levels, with the primary upside catalyst being a potential escalation of Russia sanctions targeting Norilsk Nickel, which controls ~40% of global supply. Three catalysts frame the 90-day outlook: Russia sanctions trajectory, Fed rate path, and the pace of auto demand erosion.