Market diagnosis: Palladium (PA=F) settled at $1,354.5/oz on June 17, 2026 — down 18.8% YTD and 19% below the December 2025 high of $1,675.50/oz. After 14 consecutive years of deficit, the market is transitioning to a projected surplus of ~214,000 oz in 2026 (Johnson Matthey). US anti-dumping duties at 828% preliminary and 132.83% final on Russian palladium are reshaping global supply chains — rerouting Russian metal to Europe and Asia while creating a two-tier pricing structure. Mine supply is tightening sharply: Norilsk at 20-year lows, Stillwater cutting 45%. But structural demand erosion from EV transition and Pt-for-Pd substitution in gasoline catalysts weighs on the price outlook. This report provides procurement-specific guidance with quantified scenario analysis.