Palladium enters a consolidation phase after Q1 2026 correction from $2,170 to $1,317/oz. Supply constraints persist — Norilsk output declining 10-11% in 2026, US mine cuts of ~140 Koz, Canadian mine closure — but demand faces structural headwinds from EV substitution and platinum-for-palladium switching in autocatalysts. Market near balance after a decade of deficits; above-ground inventories at ~4 months cover. The Section 232 tariff decision on Russian palladium remains the single largest catalyst: a 3-5% tariff would tighten an already stressed market, while delay would reinforce consolidation bias.