Palladium has fallen 36% from its January 2026 peak of $2,170/oz, trading at $1,379.50/oz on June 3. The decline reflects the structural reality of a metal whose primary demand driver — gasoline ICE vehicle production — is in secular decline. However, a major policy catalyst has emerged: the US Commerce Department gave initial backing to Sibanye-Stillwater's petition for Section 232 tariffs on Russian palladium imports. Russia supplies 40% of global primary palladium. If tariffs are implemented, US palladium prices would likely spike as ~1M oz/yr of Russian metal is redirected to other markets. This report analyzes the tariff timeline, supply-demand fundamentals, inventory positioning, and what each scenario means for procurement decision-making.
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