The nickel market held its consolidation into the August 24 week. LME cash settled at $16,670/mt on August 17 (+0.6%) and SHFE closed at 127,380 CNY/mt (+0.7%) on August 18. The six-session LME destreaking stalled - registered stocks ticked up 30t to 264,762t. The INSG 32kt 2026 deficit survives as the reference case with ESDM supplementary RKAB approvals pending for August-September. The new macro variable is the US-Canada 50% tariff war from August 22, a risk-off weight on the base-metals complex. Indonesia confirmed a strategic commodities exchange for January 2027 with nickel a candidate contract. The upside case requires limited supplementary allocations. The downside case requires broad expansion toward 300m+ tonnes or a tariff-driven demand drag.