The nickel market consolidated the quota-expansion scare of August 5-6. LME cash settled at $16,575/mt on August 14, down 3.1% from the July recovery high, after Minister Bahlil denied that Weda Bay's supplementary allocation had been approved and the miners' association confirmed additional quotas would be selective, not broad. The INSG 32kt 2026 deficit survives as base case but depends on ESDM supplementary decisions still pending. The REE export bottleneck cleared August 10, releasing ~400,000t of cargoes - a supply-release event. LME stocks drew for six consecutive sessions to 264.7kt while China's refined output fell an estimated 16.7% y/y. The bull case requires limited supplementary allocations. The bear case requires confirmed expansion toward 300m+ tonnes.