The nickel market absorbed a quota-expansion shock in the first week of August. LME cash fell 2.1% to $16,745/mt on unconfirmed reports that Indonesia's Weda Bay mine would receive a trebled RKAB allocation, and Minister Bahlil confirmed quota changes exist without disclosing scale. The INSG still projects a 32kt 2026 deficit, the first since 2021, but that balance now depends entirely on ESDM supplementary quota decisions due August-September. LME stocks have started drawing for the first time in 2026 (264kt, down 8.8kt from July 20) and SHFE warrants have fallen to 113kt from roughly 194kt at mid-year. The bull case requires limited supplementary allocations. The bear case requires confirmed expansion toward 300m+ tonnes.