The nickel market is in a recovery phase — LME cash at $17,100/mt, up 4.3% from the June low of $16,395, as Indonesia's quota discipline and the Middle East sulfur crisis structurally tighten supply. INSG revised its 2026 balance from a 283kt surplus to a 32kt deficit — a 315kt swing. But LME stocks remain elevated at 266kt and the contango ($235, 3M above cash) signals ample refined metal availability. The structural tightening thesis is intact; the bear case depends on Indonesia expanding quotas.