Market diagnosis: Nickel recovered $480 (+2.87%) WoW to $17,205/mt as the $16,000-16,500 support zone held, but the recovery remains fragile — contango widened to $225/mt and combined LME+SHFE inventories hit a historic 468.6kt (highest since 2015). The structural story stays intact: Indonesia's RKAB quotas at 250-260 Mt remain 34% below 2025, the Weda Bay suspension continues, and INSG forecasts a 32kt deficit for 2026 (first since 2021). But SHFE nickel stocks at record levels and the widest contango in 2026 signal no near-term squeeze. The July 31 Indonesia RKAB decision is the critical catalyst.