Market diagnosis: The nickel market correction continues — LME cash at $16,725/mt, down 14% from the April peak of $19,350, as contango ($145) and near-record combined inventories (~374kt) cap upside despite tightening fundamentals. The structural supply story remains intact: Indonesian RKAB quotas at 260-270 Mt (29% cut from 2025), the Weda Bay suspension, and the Middle East sulfur crisis persist. INSG revised to a 32kt deficit (first since 2021). But SHFE nickel stocks hit an all-time high of 99,400 tons, and combined inventories remain near the highest since 2015, giving the correction room to run. The July 31 Indonesia RKAB decision is the key catalyst for H2 2026.