Market diagnosis: The nickel market is in a correction phase — LME cash at $16,410/mt, down 9.5% from the May peak of $19,325, as profit-taking and inventory overhang outweigh tightening fundamentals. The forward curve has flipped back to contango ($190, 3M above cash), signaling no near-term physical tightness. The fundamental story remains intact — Indonesian quota cuts (250-260 Mt vs 379 Mt in 2025) and the Middle East sulfur crisis are structurally tightening supply, with INSG revising to a 32kt deficit (first since 2021). But the combined inventory overhang of ~275kt — the largest in a decade — caps upside and gives the correction room to run. This is a market in transition, not a reversal.