Market diagnosis: Nickel at $16,115/mt reflects the unwind of a policy-driven rally as surplus fundamentals reassert. After surging past $18,000 on Indonesia's 34% RKAB ore quota cuts in late 2025, prices corrected ~14% through June as the market re-focused on record exchange inventories (468,600 mt combined LME+SHFE) and a widening global surplus projected at 261kt for 2026. The structural picture remains oversupplied: Indonesia's ~60% global mine share, rising Class 1 cathode exports (+80% YoY), and sluggish stainless steel demand cap upside. Supply risks from Indonesia are real but the surplus buffers absorb them. The DEFENSIVE posture is appropriate given the surplus, but buyers must watch the late-July RKAB review — any further tightening could trigger a short-covering rally.