Market diagnosis: The nickel market has shifted from structural surplus to a small deficit of ~32kt (INSG revision), the first since 2021. Indonesian quota cuts (250-260 Mt vs 379 Mt in 2025) and the Middle East sulfur crisis are tightening supply, but a combined inventory overhang of 468,600t — the largest since 2015 — caps immediate upside. LME cash at $17,630/mt reflects this tension between improving fundamentals and record visible stocks. This report provides procurement-specific guidance with quantified scenario analysis and forward contract recommendations.