Henry Hub natural gas at $2.694/mmBtu (August 18 settlement, the latest in the Rzzro feed) holds a floor above its April low of $2.523, -25.5% YTD, capped below $3.00 by record production and a record pre-winter storage trajectory — but the first below-pace injection of the season (+16 Bcf vs +29 five-year average for the week ending August 14) put the first crack in the glut narrative. EIA's August STEO keeps 3Q26 Henry Hub at $2.87/mmBtu and projects a record 3,985 Bcf at end-October. Kpler's prolonged-crisis base case for the Strait of Hormuz (-21 mt of global LNG exports through March 2027), TTF at its highest close since January 2023, and Asian spot at $22/MMBtu keep the global layer tight while Freeport maintenance runs longer than planned. Buyers should stay opportunistic: avoid term locks above $3.00, layer winter coverage in the $2.60-2.90 zone now rather than waiting for $2.50, and track the August 21 and 28 storage prints plus Freeport's return as the near-term catalysts.
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