Henry Hub natural gas at $2.658/mmBtu sits just above its April low, -26.5% YTD, pinned below $3.00 by record production and the highest pre-winter storage trajectory since 2016. EIA's August STEO cut 3Q26 Henry Hub to $2.87/mmBtu, 50 cents below July's forecast, and projects a record 3,985 Bcf at end-October, 5% above the 5-year average. Weekly injections are running above consensus (+36 Bcf vs +31 for the week ending Aug 7). Freeport LNG maintenance (since July 10, due late August) has clipped feedgas demand, while Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps the global layer tight. Buyers should stay opportunistic: avoid term locks above $3.00, layer winter strip coverage in the $2.60-2.90 zone, and watch Freeport's restart and Hormuz developments as the two August catalysts.
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