Thesis: Henry Hub natural gas remains in a well-supplied range with limited upside through summer 2026. Record production at 110.6 Bcf/d (+2.8% YoY), driven by associated gas from Permian oil drilling, is keeping storage 151 Bcf above the five-year average despite record LNG exports at 17.0 Bcf/d and rising summer cooling demand. The EIA has revised its price forecasts downward three consecutive months, now expecting $3.34/MMBtu for 2H26. Three factors cap the upside: (1) associated gas growth accelerates as WTI production rises in response to elevated crude prices, (2) the Atlantic hurricane season forecast is below-normal (55% probability), and (3) European storage is well-filled, reducing spot LNG demand. For procurement, the best strategy is to maintain coverage at current strip levels ($3.26 summer avg) and size term volumes for winter delivery at or near the forward curve ($3.86-4.70 Nov-Dec). The risk of a supply squeeze from an active hurricane strike on Gulf Coast LNG infrastructure is real but below 20% probability. ESTIMATE