Market diagnosis: The US natural gas market is in structural surplus — supply growth outpaces demand by approximately +0.5 Bcf/d, storage at 2,686 Bcf is +6% above the five-year average, and there is no imminent bullish catalyst. LNG exports remain at near-record 16.9 Bcf/d but are maintenance-constrained. The Strait of Hormuz keeps global prices elevated (TTF ~$14.80) while ample US supply creates a deflationary domestic dynamic. This report provides procurement-specific guidance with winter strip locking strategy and quantified scenario analysis.