Methanol holds at $96.00/mt — unchanged from two weeks ago — despite the most material geopolitical escalation of the Hormuz crisis to date. The Jun 14 MOU collapsed on Jul 8 when Trump declared the ceasefire "over." The US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports on Jul 14. Hormuz traffic slumped to 10 ships/day vs a normal 88 (Jul 12), and a tanker was abandoned after a projectile strike on Jul 20. Yet the price sits flat. Why? China MTO plants continue operating at only 30% utilization (CCFGroup), absorbing zero upside. Iranian supply has partially recovered (60-70% utilization, 900kt/month) with backlogs shipping to consuming ports. The market is caught between the worst Hormuz conditions since the closure began and the weakest derivative demand in years. The procurement call: defensive — hold, reduce term exposure, and wait for one of these forces to break decisively.
Sign in with a Pro plan to view the full intelligence report.