Methanol Intelligence Report

Methanol holds at $96.00/mt — unchanged from two weeks ago — as the market enters a contested range between competing forces. The Hormuz reopening deadline (Jul 14) is 6 days away per the June 14 US-Iran MOU, yet no clear confirmation of shipping resumption has emerged. China ZCE methanol has collapsed 19.9% to 2,382 CNY/t over the past 4 weeks as MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang cut runs on negative margins. With 18-20Mt/yr of Middle East supply still shut in but global spare capacity at 30-35Mt and utilization at 64%, the market lacks a clear directional catalyst. The procurement call: defensive — hold powder, reduce term exposure, and wait for either Hormuz normalization or a decisive breakdown below $90 before committing.