Methanol Intelligence Report

Methanol at $96.00/mt is entering a new phase following the June 14 US-Iran truce MOU, which mandates Strait of Hormuz reopening within 30 days and suspension of petrochemical sanctions. The 18-20Mt/yr of Middle East supply that was shut in during the conflict will begin flowing to global markets, removing the geopolitical premium that supported prices at $108.90 in April. With 30-35Mt of global spare capacity at 64% utilization, 5.6Mt of new Chinese capacity arriving in 2026, and domestic coal-to-methanol plants running above 100% operating rates, structural oversupply will reassert as the dominant price driver. The procurement call: opportunistic — delay term commitments to capture downside as supply normalizes. Prices expected to drift toward $85-95/mt over H2 2026.