Methanol at $96.00/mt has retreated 11% from April peaks as the Iran conflict premium erodes, but structural oversupply caps any sustained rally. The global market operates at 64% utilization with 30-35Mt of spare capacity, yet 18-20Mt/yr of Middle East exports remain shut in from the Gulf conflict. China imports dropped 44.5%, sending FOB Jeddah prices to $420/mt. With ceasefire talks advancing and US exporters filling supply gaps, prices are normalizing toward structurally-driven levels. MTO demand remains subdued, and China plans 5.6Mt of new capacity in 2026. The procurement call: defensive — no urgency to lock volumes at current levels given downside risk from returning Middle East supply.
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