Manganese ore at 32.75 CNY/mtu is down 3.82% month-on-month but holds a 10.08% year-on-year gain, reflecting a market that remains broadly balanced after the tightness of mid-2025. Global production is forecast to reach 59.1 Mt in 2026 (+3.3%), driven primarily by the restart of Australia's GEMCO mine, while output from South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana is projected flat. Steel demand still accounts for 81% of manganese consumption, but battery-grade high-purity manganese sulfate (HPMSM) demand is growing at the fastest rate in years, with Chinese HPMSM utilization rates at 51-54% and spot shortages for battery-grade material.
The tension between stable steel-cycle demand and accelerating battery-grade pull is the defining feature of the current market. Chinese steel demand weakness from the property sector is offset by India's expanding production and US steel mill utilization at the highest since 2024. On the supply side, the global cost curve is steepening as low-cost Australian open-pit resources deplete, South African underground and semi-carbonate ore requires higher-cost logistics (rail/road combination), and capex for new capacity remains limited across major producers.
Buyers should extend term coverage to 70-80% of Q3 volume at current levels. The restocking window before Northern Hemisphere summer maintenance (July-August) offers the most favorable pricing of the quarter, with spot premiums expected to widen as smelter maintenance and reduced port arrivals tighten seaborne availability in August-September. The 12-month forward forecast from Trading Economics at 34.49 CNY/mtu (+5.3% from current) provides a reference ceiling for hedging decisions.
Cover 70% of Q3 volume by June 15 at 32-33 CNY/mtu; float 30% for potential Q3 tightness-driven upside; budget H2 at 33-34 CNY/mtu.
Rzzro Intelligence · Ferroalloys & Battery Metals · Week 6 Jun 2026
Manganese ore at 32.75 CNY/mtu as of May 29 is down 3.82% MoM but +10.08% YoY, reflecting a market that has settled into a balanced posture after the supply-driven tightness of 2025 eased with the GEMCO restart. The 59.1 Mt global production forecast for 2026 is the highest in three years, yet the structural cost curve is steepening as low-cost Australian open-pit resources deplete and South African underground ore faces logistics constraints. Battery-grade HPMSM demand is accelerating at its fastest pace in years (Chinese utilization at 51-54%) while steel accounts for 81% of total manganese consumption, creating a dual-speed market where bulk ore and high-purity material pricing increasingly diverge.
The manganese market in late May 2026 is operating in a broadly balanced state, a contrast to the supply-driven tightness that pushed prices to a 17-month high at the start of the year. The current ore price of 32.75 CNY/mtu (Tianjin port, 32% Mn) reflects the return of Australian supply via the GEMCO restart and the normalization of shipping patterns after the cyclone-related disruptions of 2025. Global manganese mine output is forecast to reach 59.1 Mt in 2026, up 3.3% from 57.3 Mt in 2025, with the GEMCO ramp accounting for the majority of incremental tonnage. Production from South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana is expected to be broadly flat (FACT: AInvest/Accelerate Resources analysis, Trading Economics commodity data).
The demand structure remains overwhelmingly steel-driven. Steel production accounts for 81% of manganese mining demand in 2026, with construction end-use representing 74% of total consumption, per Fact.MR and Stratview Research. However, the composition is shifting. Chinese steel demand is softer than expected due to the property sector contraction, with the real-estate slowdown directly reducing rebar demand. India's expanding steel production provides a partial offset. US steel mills in April 2026 operated at their highest capacity utilization since 2024, keeping hot-rolled coil supply tight in that market. Europe remains under industrial pressure with manufacturing PMI below 50 for seven consecutive months (FACT: Fact.MR Manganese Mining Market Report, Fastmarkets April 2026 steel data, SMM China market data).
The battery-grade manganese story is the most dynamic demand narrative even though it starts from a small base. High-purity manganese sulfate monohydrate (HPMSM) used in NMC and emerging high-Mn cathodes accounts for less than 2% of global manganese consumption but is growing at an exponential trajectory. Benchmark Minerals projects battery demand for manganese to increase over eight-fold this decade. Chinese HPMSM utilization rates reached 51-54% in Q4 2025 through early 2026, the strongest production period in years, driven by EV precursor demand and export tax changes that pulled forward Q1 2026 orders. Battery-grade MnSO4 prices in China were projected to break through RMB 7,000/t in early 2026, supported by high sulfuric acid costs and strong downstream restocking (FACT: Fastmarkets BRM Update 2026, SMM China manganese sulfate market report January 2026, Benchmark Minerals Manganese Sulphate Outlook).
On the supply side, the structural cost curve is steepening in ways that will constrain the downside for ore prices. Most of the world's manganese mines have long operational histories and are gradually depleting. The GEMCO mine shutdown after a hurricane in 2025 exposed the vulnerability of Australian high-grade open-pit resources. South African ore, while enjoying longer remaining mine life, is primarily semi-carbonate rock mined underground with higher production costs and a rail/road transport combination that is more expensive than the open-pit/logistics model in Australia and Gabon. SMM projects that the global manganese ore cost curve will become steeper as low-cost resources deplete, and that capex for new capacity at major manganese mines remains limited (FACT: SMM Future Outlook on Manganese Ore Capacity, September 2024).
The GEMCO mine restart is the single largest supply-side event in the manganese market, adding the majority of the ~1.8 Mt incremental global production forecast for 2026. After the hurricane-induced shutdown in 2025 that removed 180-200 kt of high-grade Australian ore from the market, the ramp-up has restored supply and contributed to the easing of ore prices from early-2026 highs. However, the mine's underlying resource depletion issue remains unresolved: SMM notes that many Australian high-grade open-pit deposits have limited remaining lifespan, and plans for mine-life extensions are urgently needed but face capex constraints. The concentration of incremental supply in a single Australian operation creates asymmetry: the market is pricing GEMCO's full recovery, and any ramp-up delays would tighten the market quickly (FACT: SMM Future Outlook, AInvest/Accelerate Resources analysis).
The global manganese cost curve is undergoing a structural steepening that has direct implications for floor pricing. South Africa, the world's largest producer, relies on underground mining of semi-carbonate ore, which carries higher extraction costs than the open-pit operations in Australia and Gabon. Transport logistics for South African ore involve a rail/road combination that Transnet has been working to stabilize, but which remains more expensive and less reliable than coastal shipping from Australia or Gabon. S&P Global's 2026 mine-cost outlook estimates that ~75% of 2026 global manganese production will be cash-positive at current prices, implying that the marginal 25% of production is at or near breakeven. This means there is a natural floor near current levels: if ore prices decline further, higher-cost South African and Chinese domestic production would be the first to exit, arresting the downside (FACT: SMM Future Outlook, S&P Global 2026 mine cost outlook, Minerals Council South Africa data).
Battery-grade manganese sulfate demand is growing at its fastest rate in years, creating a dual-speed market within the manganese sector. China's HPMSM production in the last three months of 2025 and into early 2026 was the strongest in years, with utilization rates climbing to 51-54% at HPMSM sites as higher-cost processing sites entered the market to meet demand. The catalyst was threefold: surging EV precursor (PCAM) demand, export tax rebate changes that pulled forward orders into Q1 2026, and soaring sulfuric acid costs (a core input) that pushed production costs higher and supported finished product pricing. Fastmarkets reports that battery-grade MnSO4 supply tightness was acute, with spot shortages ahead of Lunar New Year and expectations of prices breaching RMB 7,000/t in the near term (FACT: Fastmarkets BRM Monthly Update 2026, SMM China manganese sulfate report January 2026).
Steel demand for manganese in 2026 is showing unusual geographic divergence that creates both risks and opportunities for buyers. Chinese steel demand for rebar is running below expectations as the property sector contraction persists, acting as a drag on manganese ore pricing in Asia. In contrast, Indian steel production is expanding at 8-10% annually, absorbing some of the slack and providing a floor for alloy demand in the subcontinent. US steel mills are operating at the highest capacity utilization since 2024, supporting hot-rolled coil prices and alloy demand in North America. Europe remains the weakest region, with industrial recession reducing steel and alloy procurement. The net effect is that global steel-driven manganese demand growth is estimated at 1.5-2.5% for 2026, down from 3-4% in 2024, but with upside risk from India and the US (ESTIMATE: INN Manganese Forecast 2026, Fastmarkets steel data, SMM China market analysis, World Steel Association data).
| Signal | Direction | Confidence | Timeframe | Price Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEMCO restart supply addition | Bearish | High | Q2-Q3 2026 | -1 to -2 CNY/mtu |
| Cost curve steepening / mine depletion | Bullish floor | Medium-High | 12-24 months | Floor at 28-30 |
| Battery-grade HPMSM demand growth | Bullish | High | 12-60 months | +1 to +3 (long-term) |
| Chinese steel demand weakness | Bearish | Medium | Current | -1 to -3 CNY/mtu |
| India steel production growth | Supportive | Medium | Ongoing | +1 to +2 CNY/mtu |
| Sulfuric acid / sulfur cost inflation | Bullish (MnSO4) | High | Q1-Q2 2026 | Input cost support |
| US IRA-driven Mn project development | Long-term bullish | Low | 2027+ | Pre-revenue |
| Transnet rail/logistics constraints (SA) | Bullish | Medium | Ongoing | Supply friction |
South Africa remains the backbone of global manganese supply, with production in 2025 slightly above the record 2024 level. The Minerals Council estimates exports at approximately 26 Mt in 2025, and output is expected to be broadly flat in 2026 as no new mine capacity is being added. The primary variable is logistics: Transnet, the state-owned rail and port operator, has announced plans to issue a request for information in early 2026 to move more ore via the Port of Ngqura, signaling a policy focus on stabilizing and expanding export capacity rather than mine expansion. United Manganese of Kalahari signed a 10-year rail contract with Transnet, reflecting the industry's bet on incremental logistics improvement. However, South African ore is primarily semi-carbonate rock mined underground, with higher extraction costs and a rail/road transport combo that is more expensive than Australian or Gabonese open-pit logistics. S&P Global forecasts that 75% of 2026 global manganese production will be cash-positive, but South Africa's marginal tonnage sits closer to breakeven, making it the swing supplier in a market downturn (FACT: Minerals Council Manganese Ore Facts & Figures 2025, S&P Global 2026 mine cost outlook, Transnet corporate plan).
Gabon, through Compagnie Miniere de l'Ogooue (Comilog, a subsidiary of Eramet), is the second-largest seaborne manganese supplier and enjoys the advantage of high-grade open-pit deposits with simpler logistics than South Africa. Comilog operates the Moanda mine, which produces high-grade manganese ore (44-48% Mn) that commands a premium over the South African 32% Mn benchmark. Production in 2026 is expected to be flat as Eramet focuses on operational efficiency rather than volume expansion. The Fernco rail line connecting Moanda to the port of Owendo has been a constraint in recent years, but Eramet has invested in maintenance and capacity improvements. Gabon's political stability after the 2023 transition remains a positive factor, and the country's longer remaining mine life (by SMM's assessment) means it retains structural advantage over Australia in the long term. Gabonese ore is particularly important for the Chinese market, where higher-grade material commands a premium for blending with lower-grade domestic and South African ores (FACT: Eramet annual report 2025, SMM Future Outlook, IMnI data).
Australia's manganese supply story in 2026 is entirely about the GEMCO mine restart. South32's Groote Eylandt operation, one of the world's highest-grade open-pit manganese mines, was shut down by a hurricane in 2025 that caused flooding and structural damage. The restart and ramp-up throughout 2026 is the primary driver of the ~1.8 Mt increase in global production forecast for the year. However, GEMCO's underlying resource depletion is a recognized issue: SMM identifies Australian high-grade open-pit deposits as facing limited remaining lifespan, with mine-life extension plans requiring capex decisions that have not yet been finalized. The structural risk is that after the restart-driven production spike in 2026, Australian output may plateau or decline in 2027-2028 unless new investment is committed. South32 maintains a 60% stake in GEMCO with Anglo American holding the remainder, and the JV partners are evaluating the long-term resource strategy (FACT: South32 quarterly report, SMM Future Outlook, AInvest analysis).
China occupies a dual role in the manganese market as both the largest consumer (via steel and alloy production) and the dominant processor of battery-grade material. On the steel side, Chinese demand is showing the effects of the property sector slowdown, with rebar demand weaker than expected. However, total refined manganese demand in China is estimated at 2.5-3.0% growth in Q1-Q2 2026, supported by infrastructure spending under the 15th Five-Year Plan and steady alloy production for export markets. Domestic manganese ore production is high-cost and environmentally constrained, making China structurally dependent on seaborne ore imports from South Africa, Gabon, and Australia (FACT: SMM China market reports, IMARC manganese pricing report Q1 2026, IMnI data).
On the battery-grade side, China's dominance is even more pronounced. Chinese producers control over 85-90% of global HPMSM refining capacity. The country's battery-grade manganese sulfate market experienced a tight supply-demand balance in Q1 2026, with soaring sulfuric acid costs (sulfur prices above RMB 4,300/t in January 2026, a two-year high) pushing production costs higher. Fastmarkets reports that the Q4 2025 through early 2026 period was the strongest for Chinese HPMSM production in years, with utilization rates reaching 51-54% as higher-cost processing sites entered the market. The US Inflation Reduction Act has spurred over $2.1 billion in domestic manganese projects, including Electric Metals USA's Minnesota facility targeting 50 ktpa of HPMSM by 2026, but these projects will take time to reduce Chinese processing dominance (FACT: SFA Oxford Manganese Market report, Fastmarkets BRM Update 2026, SMM China manganese sulfate report, IRA project tracker).
The US manganese market is defined by its import dependence and the emerging policy-driven push for domestic processing capacity. The US has no active manganese ore mines and relies entirely on imports for its modest direct consumption (primarily as an alloying additive in specialty steel). However, the Inflation Reduction Act has triggered a surge in domestic battery-grade manganese projects, with over $2.1 billion in proposed investments. The flagship project is Electric Metals USA's HPMSM facility in Minnesota, targeting 50 ktpa of high-purity manganese sulfate monohydrate by 2026-2027, which would serve the North American EV battery supply chain. US steel demand for manganese alloys is supported by the strong capacity utilization at domestic mills, which in April 2026 was at its highest since 2024. The US market commands premium pricing for manganese alloys vs global benchmarks, reflecting the transportation cost premium and the small lot sizes typical of US alloy procurement (FACT: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, SFA Oxford Manganese Market report, Fastmarkets US steel data).
Manganese Ore (32% Mn, Tianjin Port Basis)
Delta vs baseline: +3.2 CNY/mtu (+10.8%) vs May 2025 average (FACT: Trading Economics data). Baseline reference: May 2025 avg ~29.7 CNY/mtu vs May 2026 current 32.75 CNY/mtu. Mechanism: Ore prices drive alloy production costs with a 2-4 week lag. The current 32-33 CNY/mtu range represents a moderate premium to 2025 levels but is below the early-2026 highs. Pass-through lag: 2-4 weeks to FeMn/SiMn alloy pricing. Exposed spend: Ferroalloy producers, steel mills with integrated alloy production, traders holding ore inventory.
Ferromanganese (FeMn) and Silicomanganese (SiMn) Alloys
Delta vs baseline: estimated +$80-120/mt contained Mn vs Q2 2025 average (FACT: SMM alloy pricing, FeMn/SiMn market data). Mechanism: Alloy prices follow ore costs with a margin that compresses when ore prices rise faster than alloy prices. In 2026, alloy margins have been stable as both ore and alloy prices moved in tandem. Pass-through lag: 2-4 weeks from ore movement. Exposed spend: Steel mills (rebar, structural steel, automotive sheet), foundries, alloy traders. A typical EAF steel mill using 15 kg SiMn per tonne of steel faces an additional cost of $1.20-1.80/t of steel produced vs 2025 levels.
Battery-Grade Manganese Sulfate (HPMSM, 32% Mn)
Delta vs baseline: Spot shortage premium with costs driven by sulfuric acid prices, not ore alone (FACT: Fastmarkets, SMM China data). Mechanism: HPMSM pricing in China has a dual cost driver: manganese ore/electrolytic flake input costs AND sulfuric acid costs, with sulfur prices at 2-year highs above RMB 4,300/t in January 2026. This creates a cost floor that is independent of ore pricing. Pass-through lag: 4-6 weeks for term contracts; spot market is tighter. Exposed spend: EV battery cathode manufacturers (NMC, LMFP), precursor producers (PCAM), energy storage companies. Budget HPMSM at RMB 6,500-7,500/t for H2 2026 with continued input cost support.
Electrolytic Manganese Metal (EMM)
Delta vs baseline: estimated +$200-300/mt vs 2025 average (ESTIMATE: SMM China EMM price data). Mechanism: EMM prices follow ore costs with additional energy cost exposure (Chinese EMM production is electricity-intensive, with power costs a major input). Pass-through lag: 3-4 weeks. Exposed spend: Specialty steel producers (stainless steel, high-strength alloys), chemical manufacturers, battery material refiners using EMM as feedstock for HPMSM production.
Manganese Scrap and Secondary Materials
Delta vs baseline: +$50-80/mt contained Mn (ESTIMATE: secondary market analysis). Mechanism: Manganese scrap markets are thin and regional, with pricing following FeMn/SiMn alloy markets. Secondary material from demolished steel structures and foundry returns offers a discount to primary alloy but with limited availability. Pass-through lag: 4-6 weeks. Exposed spend: Foundries using Mn-containing scrap in cast iron and steel production. The scrap discount to primary alloy has narrowed as overall Mn pricing has risen.
| Annual Spend on Mn-Containing Products | Current Delta vs Q2 2025 | Annual Impact |
|---|---|---|
| $500K | +10-15% alloy cost | $50,000-75,000 |
| $2M | +10-15% alloy cost | $200,000-300,000 |
| $5M | +10-15% alloy cost | $500,000-750,000 |
| $20M | +10-15% alloy cost | $2.0-3.0M |
South African manganese ore producers face margin pressure from higher underground mining costs and Transnet logistics expenses, which creates leverage opportunity for large-volume buyers. With ~75% of global production cash-positive at current prices (per S&P Global), the marginal 25% of South African semi-carbonate ore is the swing supply that determines price floors. Buyers committing to 50,000+ tonne quarterly ore volumes can negotiate: (1) a volume discount of 2-3% off SMM-assessed monthly average pricing, (2) extended payment terms of 60-90 days from bill of lading, and (3) quality tolerance clauses that allow blending of lower-grade material. The negotiation window is most favorable in the current period (June-July) before the Northern Hemisphere maintenance season reduces smelter throughput and compresses spot ore availability in August-September. Chinese alloy producers are operating with manageable margins and are willing to discount term volumes to maintain market share, providing additional leverage for buyers who can commit to annual FeMn or SiMn tonnage.
Trigger variable: Chinese steel demand trajectory vs GEMCO ramp reliability vs HPMSM demand acceleration
Condition: Chinese steel demand stabilizes with infrastructure stimulus. GEMCO ramp completes on schedule. India steel production maintains 8-10% growth. Battery demand growth continues but does not create ore market competition. South African logistics improve moderately with Transnet reforms.
Price direction: 30-32 CNY/mtu Mn ore, steady alloy pricing, stable FeMn margins
Condition: Chinese steel demand remains subdued with property sector drag partly offset by infrastructure. GEMCO ramp proceeds with minor delays. Battery-grade HPMSM demand continues tightening, creating premiums for high-purity material but not affecting bulk ore pricing. Cost curve floor at 30 CNY/mtu holds.
Price direction: 32-34 CNY/mtu Mn ore, tight HPMSM market, FeMn/SiMn stable
Condition: Chinese steel demand drops more than expected (property deepening, no stimulus). GEMCO ramp delayed beyond Q3. Battery HPMSM demand surges and competes for high-grade ore with traditional alloy sector. South African logistics deteriorate on Transnet underperformance. Sulfur/sulfuric acid costs remain elevated, compressing HPMSM margins and limiting capacity.
Price direction: 28-31 CNY/mtu ore on weak steel demand; HPMSM pricing at RMB 7,500+/t on tight supply; FeMn/SiMn margins compress on ore fall-through + weaker steel demand
Net hedge posture: LAYERED — cover 70% of Q3 Mn ore at current 32-33 CNY/mtu, float 30% for potential softness from Chinese steel demand weakness. Battery-grade buyers should cover 80%+ of H2 HPMSM requirements at current levels given the tightening supply-demand balance and input cost support. (ESTIMATE: Rzzro scenario-weighted probability analysis)
| Role | Action | By When | Success Metric |
|---|---|---|---|
| Procurement Manager (Ore) | Lock 70% of Q3 Mn ore volume via term contract at 32-33 CNY/mtu (SMM +0-2% range); leave 30% unhedged for potential Chinese demand weakness discount | June 15, 2026 | Q3 volume 70% covered at or below budget price of 33 CNY/mtu; spot reserve for opportunistic restocking |
| Procurement Manager (Alloys) | Negotiate Q3 FeMn/SiMn term contracts at SMM monthly average minus 1-2% for volume commitment; lock 60% of requirement | June 15, 2026 | Alloy contracts at or below budget; multiple supplier agreements in place |
| Procurement Manager (Battery) | Lock 80% of H2 HPMSM volume at current RMB 6,500-7,000/t; secure at least two supplier sources for risk diversification | June 30, 2026 | HPMSM supply secured through Q4; no unplanned spot purchases at premium |
| CFO / Finance | Model H2 2026 Mn ore budget at 33 CNY/mtu average with +10% supply disruption contingency; authorize 70% hedge coverage | June 15, 2026 | Budget approved with contingency pre-authorized; FX hedging in place for CNY-denominated ore purchases |
| CFO / Finance | For battery-grade buyers: authorize premium of up to 15% over base ore budget for HPMSM procurement given tight market conditions | June 15, 2026 | HPMSM budget ceiling set; escalation authority pre-approved for spot shortage scenarios |
| Supply Chain / Ops | Monitor SMM Chinese port inventories weekly; set alert if stocks drop below 2.0 Mt (tight) or rise above 3.5 Mt (surplus) | Ongoing | Inventory monitoring dashboard active; alert triggers configured |
| Supply Chain / Ops | Validate at least two alternative logistics routes for South African ore delivery (rail + Ngqura vs road + Durban) for contingency planning | July 15, 2026 | Route contingency plan documented; alternative logistics costs modeled |
Forward contract recommendation: Q3 ore strip — cover 70% of quarterly volume at current 32-33 CNY/mtu via SMM-plus term contracts. The market is in a balanced-to-soft posture through Q3 with GEMCO supply restoration and weak Chinese steel demand, but the cost curve floor near 30 CNY/mtu limits downside. For battery-grade HPMSM, a more aggressive coverage posture is warranted given the accelerating demand growth, sulfuric acid cost support, and limited new capacity before 2027. Layer in additional 20% coverage for Q4 if ore prices dip below 31 CNY/mtu during the summer lull.