Manganese ore prices hold at 28.75 CNY/mtu — the 52-week low, down 23.2% from the March peak of 37.45 CNY/mtu — as a widening surplus and rising Tianjin port inventories keep spot under pressure. The market is flat week-over-week for the first time since April, but the underlying balance is deteriorating: Tianjin ore stocks rose 104,600 tonnes in the week to August 7, GEMCO delivered 3.03 Mt in FY2026 (sales of 3.60 Mt), and Comilog is guiding 6.4-6.8 Mt of 2026 shipments, up from 6.1 Mt in 2025. World Steel cut China demand to -1.5% for 2026. Production costs near current levels — Eramet FOB cash costs of $2.4-2.6/dmtu plus freight — and ferroalloy capacity erosion limit further downside. Trading Economics models CNY 27.80 in 12 months. Buyers hold leverage: negotiate Q4 contracts at or below current spot, target 26-27 CNY/mtu entry points with 30-45 day coverage.