LNG Asia JKM Intelligence Report

Asia Pacific LNG JKM $15.77/mmBtu as of July 1, 2026, 51% above pre-conflict levels ($10.40) but down 37.6% from the March peak ($25.30). The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure removed ~10.2 Mtpa of Qatari supply (Ras Laffan, 3-5 yr repair), creating a ~35 Mt annual deficit. Macquarie (Jun 23) forecasts JKM avg $16.48 in 2026 before normalizing to $12.81 in 2027 as US LNG capacity ramps. JKM evolved from pre-war surplus to post-war deficit in four distinct phases: stability, war spike (+143%), correction, and consolidation at $14-18. The forward curve prices normalization by FY2028. Buyers should protect near-term volume at $14-16 but avoid locking long-term contracts at current elevated spreads.