Market diagnosis: JKM LNG markets remain elevated at $15.77/mmBtu as the Strait of Hormuz closure enters its 70+ day, blocking ~25% of global LNG flows. Qatar's Ras Laffan facility remains offline since March with 17% of capacity damaged for 3-5 years — compounded by a fatal explosion on June 22. The ceasefire-driven dip to $15.82 on June 17 was short-lived: Iran re-closed Hormuz on June 20, re-establishing the supply shock premium. Markets are caught between acute supply disruption and a wave of 57 MTPA of new global capacity coming online in 2026 — the largest year on record. Inventory levels in Japan (1.80 Mt) and Korea (~42% fullness) provide a moderate buffer, but 90 TWh of gas-to-coal switching across Asia signals structural demand destruction at these prices. Procurement teams should maintain close watch on Hormuz reopening signals while hedging Q3-Q4 exposure against further upside.