LNG Asia JKM Intelligence Report

Asia Pacific LNG (JKM) spot assessments reached $18.86-18.92/MMBtu in mid-June, up 20% from the May average of $15.77 and ~60% above the pre-crisis equilibrium. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed since February, stranding ~20% of global LNG trade. Qatar's Ras Laffan facility lost ~13 Mtpa for 3-5 years from war damage. Enverus (June 10) projects the disruption shifts global gas into structural deficit through 2030. EU storage at 28% vs 5yr avg 41% amplifies summer cargo competition. The market's base case partial reopening in Q3 projects JKM at $14-18/MMBtu, but a prolonged blockade through peak summer could test $22-25/MMBtu.