Market diagnosis: The lithium carbonate correction has deepened further — SMM China spot dropped to 151,750 CNY/T (June 29, 2026), a -3.3% decline in the week since the last report and a -24.3% fall from the May 13 peak of 200,500 CNY/T. The correction now extends beyond a quarter of peak value. The new catalyst is restart speculation at CATL's Jianxiawo mine (Jiangxi Province), which passed a land pre-approval on June 17, 2026 — triggering a -10% crash over two trading sessions. This 46,000 t/yr mine (~3% of global supply) has been closed since August 2025. The structural deficit thesis (Fastmarkets: deficit in 2026, $23.80/kg forecast) remains intact but near-term momentum is decisively negative. Prices remain +150% above June 2025 lows (~60,700 CNY/T). The divergence between bearish near-term momentum and bullish medium-term fundamentals is the widest since the 2025 bear market bottom. For procurement: the 140,000 CNY/T level (Jan open) is the critical support; below that, 130,000 is the next floor.