Market diagnosis: The lithium carbonate correction has deepened sharply — SMM China spot dropped to 157,000 CNY/T (June 22, 2026), a single-day decline of -6.13% and a -21.7% fall from the May 13 peak of 200,500 CNY/T. The correction now exceeds -20%, meeting the technical definition of a bear-market pullback within the long-term recovery trend. Prices remain +158.6% above June 2025 lows (~60,700 CNY/T) but the speed of the June decline signals inventory liquidation and demand uncertainty from China's NEV sales miss in May. The structural deficit picture is intact — Fastmarkets projects 1.5kt deficit in 2026 — but near-term momentum is decisively bearish. The -21.7% correction provides a potential re-entry window for buyers who missed the Q1-Q2 rally, provided they can stomach further downside to support at ~140,000 CNY/T (Jan 2026 open). China's export control suspension expiry (Nov 10, 2026) remains the most potent H2 catalyst.