Market diagnosis: The lithium carbonate market has shifted from structural surplus to emerging deficit — Fastmarkets projects a 1.5kt deficit in 2026 after a 10kt surplus in 2025, while Morgan Stanley forecasts an 80kt deficit. The SMM China spot price of 170,500 CNY/T (~$23,870/t) represents a -10.97% pullback from the May high of 200,500 CNY/T, but prices remain +181.82% year-on-year. Three supply disruptions dominate: Greenbushes FY26 guidance cut (125-225kt), Zimbabwe's export ban removing ~124kt LCE (~7% global supply), and CATL's Jianxiawo mine remaining closed. Energy storage demand is surging — ESS share of lithium demand rising from 23% to 31% in 2026. This report provides procurement-specific guidance with quantified scenario analysis and forward contract recommendations.