Kraft Paper & Containerboard Intelligence Report

North American containerboard enters a third price-increase wave: Packaging Corp of America announced $140 per ton for September 1, with International Paper at $80 and Smurfit Westrock at $100, on top of a net $100 per short ton already recognized year-to-date. The driver is supply, not demand: 10% of US capacity (3.9 million short tons) is permanently retired, IP's Pine Hill mill is offline, and unbleached kraft linerboard runs at 95.7% operating rates with mill stocks at 15-month lows. Demand is flat, and the independent converter association AICC is publicly contesting the hikes. This report analyzes the September 1 hike wave, supply-demand balance, cost pass-through, and forward contracting strategy across three scenarios for H2 2026.